Picking the highest-ranked team is not the optimal strategy. The right question: which combination maximises expected output while minimising correlated failure risk?
IronClad ranked #2 yet had the 9th-best EMV. Their 50% reliability turned a $95K gross into a $42.3K expected value — a $52,750 phantom number hidden behind the ranking.
In playoff brackets, one zero-output match ends your run. Teams with 70% reliability are actuarially certain to fail in 3-round formats — and two teams in this pool had exactly that rate.
A winning alliance covers all three match phases — Auto, TeleOp, Endgame. Picking two specialists in the same phase creates a systematic gap opponents can exploit every round.
Return-on-investment per Auto, TeleOp, and Endgame phase — normalised across the 11-team pool.
% of matches without a zero-phase failure. Below 80% = automatic exclusion from consideration.
Match-to-match score standard deviation. Low volatility = predictable, bankable playoff contributor.
Net Revenue × Reliability. The honest metric — adjusts for crash risk before comparing teams.
EMV ÷ Volatility — the Sharpe Ratio for robotics. Rewards consistent earners, penalises boom-bust.
Phoenix Vipers team competed in the FTC "Into the Deep" season — posting qualification results that placed us among the top alliance candidates in the regional pool.
After filtering 11 teams through five analytical lenses, two teams cleared every threshold with a margin that makes the decision unambiguous.
These discoveries emerged from data — not visible from rankings alone. This is why scouting alone isn't enough.
IronClad's $95K gross collapsed to a $42.3K EMV once 50% reliability was factored in. A $52,750 phantom number. Their failed inspection made it moot — but the lesson is: reliability is a multiplier, not a footnote.
Quantum Foxes failed exactly matches 3, 6, and 9 — a perfect interval suggesting thermal or fatigue failure. In a 4-round single-elimination bracket, this is near-certain disqualification. Completely invisible from rank #8.
Rank #10 Nomad Robotics holds the highest Investment Appeal in the pool at $923K, driven by near-zero volatility (0.08). They become contingency Pick #2 if ByteForce is taken by another alliance captain.
Phoenix Vipers — competing in the FTC "Into the Deep" season. Every number in this analysis was earned on that field.
Browse the full scouting database, interactive charts, risk matrix and radar comparison — or open the Formula Lab to model your own scenarios in real time.